The Monte Carlo tab
What shuffling your own trades can tell you, and the long list of what it cannot.
The Monte Carlo tab reruns your resolved trades thousands of times in a different order, or redrawn with replacement, to show how wide the range of outcomes around your result is.
The two modes
- Redraw the trades asks how much of your result was the spread of outcomes you happened to get
- Reorder the trades keeps your exact outcomes and asks how much of your drawdown was the order they arrived in
It can never draw an outcome you have not already had, it cannot tell you whether you have an edge, and it assumes your future comes out of the same urn as your past. The panel lists every one of these limits in full next to the figures, because each one is a way the picture can be misread.
The seed is printed under the panel, so the same study is the same picture every time you open it.
Still have questions? Contact support and a person will reply by email.